000 AGXX40 KNHC 120619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 219 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30N/31N ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN INTO THE E GULF BY TUE NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF UNTIL THEN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT (MON NIGHT)...WITH FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN COMMENCING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 6-8 FT NEAR THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS IT ENTERS THE E GULF WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT...REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF WED EVENING... FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THU EVENING...MOVING E OF THE GULF WHILE MERGING WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH FRI. INITIALLY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR W GULF...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN ZONE GMZ017 WED...SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF AND ZONE GMZ023 WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-13 FT DURING THE GALE. THIS FRONT IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR MID-MAY WITH IT MANAGING TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE N-NE. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF 16N ALONG 71W/72W. THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION IS NOW N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS STILL COVER THE AREA N OF 16N E OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS INDICATED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR THERE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD REACHING 80W/CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT (MON NIGHT) THEN STALLING NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS IT EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THU. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAVE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE AREA...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8-10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GULF OF HONDURAS WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THAT AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGING NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 7-9 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STALLED OUT TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MERGE WITH AN UNUSUAL MID-MAY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY BREACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION ABOVE IS N OF PUERTO RICO...LIFTING TO THE N-NE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD LOCATED S OF 24N ALONG 71W/72W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING S OF 25N E OF THE TROUGH TO 64W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W AS INDICATED BY RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A RIDGE STEMMING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO LIFT N OF 30N/31N AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ARE N OF 27N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS S OF 27N OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL REACH ALONG 74W LATE THIS MORNING...MOVING W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT TUE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH WED NIGHT...TURNING MORE TO THE SE-S TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UNUSUAL MID-MAY FRONT WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST FRI MORNING...THEN FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA EASTWARD ALONG 31N FRI INTO EARLY SAT. CURRENTLY ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 29N/30N FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.