000 AGXX40 KNHC 111805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31N ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN MEXICO WED...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 22N-24N ON WED. MODEL GUIDANCE FALLING IN LINE REGARDING ATLC TROUGH ENTERING SE GULF AND MERGING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECT FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN OVER SE GULF THU AND THU NIGHT...WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT TROUGH RIDING NE OVER FLORIDA INTO SW N ATLC THU THROUGH FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MONA PASSAGE INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ERUPT N AND E OF THE UPPER LOW CAUSING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EASTWARD THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TO ANTIGUA. RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE REGION. PRES GRADIENT FROM TROUGH IN EASTERN PACIFIC MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE FALLING IN LINE REGARDING MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND MON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY W-NW ACROSS CUBA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. IT REACHES THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT THEN STALLS N OF WESTERN CUBA THU AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE THU AND THE REMNANT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC FRI. ENTERING SE GULF AND MERGING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECT FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN OVER SE GULF THU AND THU NIGHT...WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT TROUGH RIDING NE OVER FLORIDA INTO SW N ATLC THU THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TROUGH S OF 21N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE IS ENHANCING WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THU THEN LIFT NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE REGION FRI. A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.