000 AGXX40 KNHC 110631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 231 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM. A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF E OF 94W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT ON A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 26N70W TO NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING NE ACROSS S FLORIDA TO BERMUDA. THIS RIDGE IS AIDING IN VENTING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NW GULF...NORTHERN MEXICO...AND SE TEXAS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE AND DRY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. EAST TO SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF ALONG WITH MAINLY 4-6 FT SEAS EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN IN THE SW GULF...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS CONTINUE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA YIELDING 4-7 FT SEAS...WHILE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE NOW FRESH COMPARED TO FRESH TO STRONG THE PAST FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO PULSE...STRONGEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES WESTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON NIGHT. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS HAD BEEN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...BUT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TUE NIGHT... REACHING THE SW GULF WED. FRESH TO AT LEAST STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 94W...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KT ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 7-10 FT WED INTO WED NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE QUICKNESS OF THE FRONT THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EITHER REMAIN JUST E OF THE GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...OR MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE E GULF BEFORE MERGING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT. A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE N-NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND TO THE S INTO NW VENEZUELA. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS MAINLY E OF 65W...EXCEPT N OF 17N E OF 70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 11N63W. ELSEWHERE UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGHING WITH MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE WESTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGHING LIFT TO THE N-NE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 65W LATER THIS MORNING...ALONG 70W INCLUDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON MORNING... AND THEN OVER CENTRAL CUBA TUE MORNING. AS FAR AS WINDS AND SEAS GO...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS PULSING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON MORNING (A RECENT ASCAT PASS EVEN SHOWED THESE WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL HONDURAS)...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALSO IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALL THREE OF THESE AREAS WILL DIMINISH MON AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES WESTWARD EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NE-E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N-NE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT. AN IMPRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR PUERTO RICO WITHIN W ATLC TROUGHING. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS ZONE AMZ125 S OF 22N E OF 70W...AND AMZ127W E OF 65W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 63W EXTENDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH TUE...WITH A ZONE OF EASTERLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND ASSOCIATED 7-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TOP AND TO THE NW OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS RECENTLY INDICATED BY ASCAT PASSES ARE N-NE OF PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH FRESH WINDS EXTENDING TO THE N ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DRIFTING N OF 31N AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE PORTION IS STARTING TO SHIFT W THIS MORNING. DUE TO CONVERGENCE TO THE W AND NW OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO E AND NE OF THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN WILL SHIFT NW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE TUE AND WED. AT THIS TIME...NO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE THU. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD ON WED/THU AS FAR AS HOW FAR WESTWARD THE TROUGH WILL MAKE IT. THE GFS TEMPORARILY HANGS IT UP STALLING JUST E OF OR OVER FLORIDA WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS TAKE IT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE IT MERGES WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.