000 AGXX40 KNHC 101905 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ENE INTO MS RIVER VALLEY EXTENDS SSW INTO NW GULF AND HAD KICKED OFF SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CNVTN LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED DRASTICALLY. BUOY 42020 JUMPED UP TO 8 FT THIS MORNING IN CONFUSED SEAS OF NNW WIND WAVE FROM OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CNVTN...AND SE WIND SWELL AT 7 SECS...BUT SEAS THERE HAVE GRADUALLY DROPPED TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND OFF E COAST OF U.S. AND IS AIDING IN VENTING CNVTN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH A LLVL TROF CONTINUING JUST OFFSHORE...WHILE SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN AS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 30N. SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO SE GULF YIELDING SEAS 5 TO 7 FT EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN WAVES AGAINST CURRENT IN THE STRAITS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS BROAD LLVL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS NE CARIB MOVES WWD NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS MONDAY TO RESTRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAITS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING THEN WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND STALL OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS CARIB/BAHAMASTROUGH STALLS OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND BOTTLES UPSTREAM FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING OF GLOBAL MODELS IN LAST RUNS AS THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF NOT MOVING IT INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING AND THE UKMET CLOSER BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SE THAN ECMWF. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE USED A CONSENSUS BEYOND 12Z TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS. VIGOROUS VORT WITHIN W ATLC TROUGH IS DIGGING SSW ACROSS PR AND MONA PASSAGE...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CNVTN GRADUALLY SHIFTING WWD ACROSS EXTREME NE CARIB. ELSEWHERE UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE W. RESULTANT LLVL TROUGH FORECAST BY MODELS APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NE CARIB ALONG ABOUT 63-64W AND EXTENDING NE INTO ADJACENT ATLC...WITH NELY FLOW 20-25 KT DEPICTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASS ACROSS ATLC WATERS N OF PR...LIKELY SPREADING THROUGH MONA PASSAGE AND S OF DOM REP...AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SE BAHAMAS. MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AND BECOME STATIONARY NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE BEGINNING SUN EVENING AND LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH LATE MON THROUGH TUE ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED LLVL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WWD THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN IT REACHES THE W CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THEN STALL...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW ENERGY WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GFS IS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS SLOWER WITH WWD PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...WHILE ALL MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER S PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CARIB N OF 17N AND SHARPER TROUGHING ACROSS ATLC. STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS TOP OF THIS TROUGH TO MAINTAIN FRESH NELY FLOW THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH...THEN GRADIENT FLOW AND STRONG ENE WINDS TO SHIFT WWD THROUGH STRAITS AND LEE OF CUBA SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND SHIFT NW OF AREA LATE MON INTO TUE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF BASIN EXPECT FOR STRONG E TO SE FLOW IN GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE PEAK SEAS WILL FLUCTUATE 8 TO 9 FT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. BROAD AND DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO OCCUR FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD. A SCREAMING EAGLE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WAS CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 5-7 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS VIGOROUS VORT WITHIN W ATLC TROUGH INDUCING AND ENHANCING MODEST AREA OF DEEP CNVTN ACROSS NE CARIB AND SW N ATLC WATERS JUST SE OF AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LLVL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG 63-64W IN NE CARIB AND EXTENDS NE INTO ATLC AND WILL SHIFT WWD THROUGH TUE...WITH ZONE OF STRONG WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TOP AND TO THE NW OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. CURRENTLY...STRONGEST WINDS RECENTLY INDICATED BY ASCAT PASS N OF PR AND EXTENDING WWD THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SE BAHAMAS...WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...RIDGE PERSIST ALONG 30-31N AND WILL DRIFT N TO 32-33N NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROF SHIFTS W. DUE TO CONVERGENCE TO THE W AND NW OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...STRONGEST CNVTN WITH SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO E AND NE OF TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN SHIFT NW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE TUE AND WED. AT THIS TIME...NO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.