000 AGXX40 KNHC 100616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER U.S. GREAT PLAINS HELPING TO SUPPORT A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NEAR BILOXI TO BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM E-SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER OVER SE MEXICO FROM THE NE PACIFIC AROUND AN EXPANSIVE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS LOCATED OVER GUATEMALA. SOME ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF. EAST TO SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM ATLC HIGH PRES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL LOWER LEVEL JET IN PLACE ALONG THE NW AND N COAST OF THE PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...4-6 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. THE SE WIND FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W E OF THE CONVECTION AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 SM AT STATION KGRY NEAR 27.5N90.5W. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING THEN WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND STALL OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF NOT MOVING IT INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT. BROAD AND DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO OCCUR FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD. A SCREAMING EAGLE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WAS CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 5-7 FT. THE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS MODELS HAVE FORECAST...WITH AN UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND DIG INTO ATLC WATERS JUST N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 65W...WITH STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE S AND SE SEMICIRCLE ENHANCING PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION. THE TROUGHING IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN LOW LEVELS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LOW DROPPING ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUN. AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY WESTWARD FROM ALONG 63/64W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 67/68W SUN... THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PORTIONS THEN WEAKENING. OTHERWISE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE IN ZONE AMZ017/GULF OF HONDURAS AS SEEN BY A 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS WHERE SEAS ARE 5-8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS SEEN BY A 0204 UTC ASCAT-B PASS WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY UP TO 8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC N OF 16N ALTHOUGH ASCAT AND ASCAT-B BOTH MISSED THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER AREAS OF WIND AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA...AND LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING TUE AND WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT. THE TAIL ENDS OF TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE STALLED AND NEARLY MERGED ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND SE WATERS N-NE OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 22N AND 23.5N PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING EMBEDDED LOW (MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION) TO ACT UPON. BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG ABOUT 63-65W IS INDUCING TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CONTINUING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 5-7 FT WITH AREAS TO 8-9 FT...MAINLY IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JUST E OF TURKS AND CAICOS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WILL MAINTAIN THIS GRADIENT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AN ATLC HIGH RESIDES SW OF BERMUDA WITH E TO W RIDGING STRETCHED OUT ALONG 30N WHICH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY N TO 31-32N BY 12 UTC MON. THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC INCLUDING ZONE AMZ127 DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL REORGANIZE WITH A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING E OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG 63/64W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 67/68W SUN...THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE E OF ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHILE THE UKMET IS CLOSER TO ECMWF...AND HAVE THUS BLENDED A STRONG PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF AFTER DAY 2. STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS 6-8 FT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITHIN IS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS S OF 26N THROUGH MON BEFORE THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOW...WEAKEN...AND START TO LIFT OUT TO THE N THEN NE TUE-WED. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH VARYING DEPICTIONS BY GLOBAL MODELS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.