000 AGXX40 KNHC 091904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 304 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. DEEP LAYERED TROFFING PERSISTS 103-105W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NNE INTO SE U.S. AND CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SW MEXICO...SW GULF AND NWD INTO NW GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE JUST RECENTLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS SW GULF...LIKELY UNDER DIURNAL INFLUENCES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM ATLC HIGH PRES WWD ACROSS N GULF STATES...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND VEERING NW INTO SE PORTIONS...WHERE AN EARLY MORNING ALTIMETER SHOWED SEAS 5-7 FT ALONG 84W. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N...AND UP TO 8 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND TO 9 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHERE WIND AGAINST CURRENT IS ENHANCING WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SE WIND FLOW WAS ALSO SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHIFT FOG ISSUES TO LOUISIANA AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND STALL OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF NOT MOVING IT INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. BROAD TROFFING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC...TO THE S OF TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WASHING OUT ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 70W. THIS IS WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT E OF 70W AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SCREAMING EAGLE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ATTM AND WAS CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...WITH WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 5-7 FT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO THESE LEVELS THROUGH MON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...THEN WILL DIMINISH MON THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS MODELS HAVE FORECAST...WITH UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND DIG INTO ATLC WATERS JUST N OF NE CARIB ALONG ABOUT 64/65W...WITH STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE S AND SE SEMICIRCLE ENHANCING SCT TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CNVTN. CURRENTLY STRONGEST CNVTN OCCURRING ACROSS CARIB WATERS S OF PR NE THROUGH THE LEEWARDS...WHILE DIURNAL CNVTN HAS JUST BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS PR AND HISPANIOLA. TROFFING IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN LOW LEVELS TO THE E OF THE LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LOW DROPPING ACROSS PUERTO RICO SAT-SUN. INDUCED LLVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY WWD...FROM ALONG 63/64W SAT...67/68W SUN...THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON...WITH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS THEN WEAKENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 15-25 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. THE TAIL END OF TWO OLD FRONT BOUNDARIES HAVE STALLED AND NEARLY MERGED ACROSS THE SE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO...BETWEEN 22N AND 23.5N...PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING EMBEDDED LOW TO ACT UPON. BROAD LLVL TROFFING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG ABOUT 63-65W INDUCING TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH SE BAHAMAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN LEE OF BAHAMAS AND CONTINUING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 5-7 FT WITH AREAS TO 8-9 FT...MAINLY IN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JUST E OF TURKS AND CAICOS. PERSISTENT LLVL TROFFING ACROSS THE NE CARIB NEXT 48 HOURS WILL MAINTAIN THIS GRADIENT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH RESIDES W OF BERMUDA ALONG 30N...AND WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY N TO 31-32N BY 12Z MON. LLVL TROFFING ACROSS THE NE CARIB PAST 24 HOURS WILL REORGANIZE WITH BROAD TROF DEVELOPING E OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG 63/64W SAT...67/68W SUN...THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON. GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE E OF ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHILE UKMET IS CLOSER TO ECMWF...AND HAVE THUS BLENDED A STRONG PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF AFTER DAY 2. STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS 6-8 FT WILL SHIFT WWD WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS S OF 26N THROUGH MON BEFORE TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOW...WEAKEN...AND START TO LIFT OUT TO THE N THEN NE TUE-WED. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS OCCURS WITH VARYING DEPICTIONS BY GLOBAL MODELS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.