000 AGXX40 KNHC 090634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WHICH IS PUMPING UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SW MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM ATLC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N...AND UP TO 8 FT IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SE WIND FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS WITH SOME VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 1 NM...WITH THE FOG ALSO SPREADING INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT EACH EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE TEXAS AS SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY STALLING NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF NOT MOVING IT INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO THESE LEVELS THROUGH MON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...THEN WILL DIMINISH TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CURRENTLY STALLED OUT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO FIRE... ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA HAS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W-NW AS A TROUGH MAINLY N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY...MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL DAMPEN OUT AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...S OF HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE STRONGER WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE E OF 70W ALONG 25N WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT NEAR IT. 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS TO THE N JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW-W TO NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS S OF 27N...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG S OF 22N W OF 65W...AND IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE SEAS ARE CLOSER TO 7-8 FT. A STATIONARY TROUGH IS E OF 65W STRETCHING ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NE-E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER PLAYER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. ALL MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVES IT TO THE W BEGINNING SUN EVENING WHILE WEAK LOW PRES ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT N OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS MON AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE EVENING. A BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE DEPICTED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW/TROUGHING WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WOULD BE TIGHT. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE DOES NOT MOVE THE TROUGH WESTWARD UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS OF A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE TROUGHING. THE UKMET TAKES THE TROUGH WESTWARD REACHING THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT...WITH LOW PRES NOT DEVELOPING ALONG IT UNTIL TUE NIGHT OVER THE BAHAMAS WHERE IT MAY STALL BY WED. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.