000 AGXX40 KNHC 081834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH SUN THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SE AND STILL EXTENDS WWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW...WHILE STRONG FLOW TO 25 KT PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH STRAITSOF FL. NO RECENT SHIP OBS REPORTED SEAS...BUT A MORNING ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 7.6 FT JUST SE OF EYW...AND LIKELY NOT MAX SEAS...AND 6-9 FT IS LIKELY STILL A REASONABLE FORECAST THROUGH STRAITS NEXT 24 HOURS. AS STATED OVERNIGHT...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH MON. GFS SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODEST ACROSS BASIN WITH ONLY LOCAL EFFECTS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. GOING WITH GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUN SEEMS REASONABLE THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND. NEXT FRONT TO REACH TEXAS COAST TUE MORNING. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL REMNANT PERSISTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PR...AND THE VI THIS AFTERNOON AND IS INTERACTING WITH SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ACROSS SE SEMICIRCLE OF A DEVELOPING VORT WITHIN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...AND IS ALREADY SHOWING A LLVL REFLECTION IN CLOUD FIELD ALONG 64/65W. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GENTLE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF E CARIB AND MODERATE TRADES W PORTIONS...EXCEPT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. GRADIENT ENHANCED WINDS STREAMING W-SW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING AND LIKELY BUILD SEAS THERE 5-8 FT. DEVELOPING LLVL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 64-65W WILL SHIFT WWD AND DAMPEN OUT NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHILE DEEPENING VORT CENTER IN ATLC UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT BROAD LLVL TROUGH 61-63W BY SAT THAT WILL SHIFT W TO MONA PASSAGE SUN. MOST WIND AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE OR PERIPHERY OF TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS WWD...WITH ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA AND AREA WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. GLOBAL MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...BEING CENTERED ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY SUN 12Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. THUS STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NE CARIB AND IN S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WHERE STRONG TURNING OCCURS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND NW ATLC HIGH SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING WWD ACROSS N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW MOVING THROUGH ALL BUT NW BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH NEW LLVL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 64-65W AND SHOULD SHIFT WWD NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE DAMPENING. MODELS HAVE COME IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT UPPER LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE CONFINED JUST SE OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES...AND ACROSS PR...THE VI...AND ADJACENT REGIONAL NE CARIB ISLANDS AND WATERS. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS N AND NW OF CURRENT LLVL TROUGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN WINDS THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...WITH SEAS 5-7 FT AND POSSIBLY MAX OF 8 FT IN LEE OF BAHAMAS...AND CERTAINLY IN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND STRAITS. BROAD AND MORE PRONOUNCED LLVL TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG 61-63W SAT AND SHIFT WWD TO MONA PASSAGE SUN...WITH AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS DRAPED ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS WWD. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CONTINUED WWD MOTION THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT REACHES NW BAHAMAS...SLOWS CONSIDERABLY...WITH ELONGATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS AND LIFTING NNE OUT OF AREA THROUGH END OF WEEK. DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST IN WIND FIELD AS THIS OCCURS WITH ECMWF JUST A LITTLE SLOWER REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS TUE-WED...AND THUS STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS. HAVE GONE WITH 50-50 BLEND BEYOND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.