000 AGXX40 KNHC 071846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH SUN THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NE GULF HAS SHIFTED E INTO THE SW N ATLC NEAR 28N74W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W-NW ALONG COAST STATES AND YIELDING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THIS EVENING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS W ATLC SINKS SE AND NW HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC ATTM SETTLES S TONIGHT THROUGH SAT TO RE- ESTABLISH RIDGE WWD 30-31N AND MAINTAIN SE RETURN FLOW. EXTENDED E-SE FETCH THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO SE GULF WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT AND 8 FT OR GREATER IN THE CURRENT IN WAVES AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS NOW IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL U.S. AND CONNECTION WITH REMNANTS OF EP90 BEING PULLED NWD ACROSS MEXICO. GFS SUGGESTS GRADIENT TO REMAIN MODEST ACROSS BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL EFFECTS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH 20 KT FRI-SUN. ECMWF STILL FORECASTING TROUGHING ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SAT AND SHIFTING E SUN...WHICH INDUCES GREATER GRADIENT TO THE EAST... WHILE THIS FEATURE NOT DEPICTED BY GFS AND UKMET. ATTM GOING WITH GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUN. BEYOND SUN A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WWD THROUGH WED AND WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE AREA BEGINNING FRI...WITH GFS LOW POSITION ALONG ABOUT 63W AND ECMWF ALONG ABOUT 67W BY 00Z MON...WHILE UKMET MORE IN LINE WITH GFS. HAVE THUS USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS BEYOND FRI. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CARVE OUT AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACROSS NE CARIB ALONG 63W ON SAT THAT WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY THROUGH SUN AS IT SHIFTS WWD...REACHING 72W BY 12Z MON. GFS STILL HINTING AT SFC LOW BUT IS OF NO CONSEQUENCE AS TROUGH THEN WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES WNW TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA. AT PRESENT...WEAK HIGH PRES HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE SW N ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT PERSISTING INTO SUN. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN MILD AS TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK GRADIENT E OF 80W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE WATERS WILL RETROGRADE W THROUGH SOUTHERN WATERS AND INTO CUBA THROUGH FRI WITH GRADIENT INDUCED E TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT TO PREVAIL THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LOW PINCHING OFF FRI AND INDUCED SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WWD ACROSS SE WATERS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE SAT THROUGH MON. HAVE USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUE...WITH A SIZABLE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DRAPED ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF TROUGH SHIFTING WWD WITH IT IN TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.