000 AGXX40 KNHC 070705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH THE ECMWF ADDED FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING...BUT A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI WITH SE RETURN FLOW. THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ON FRI. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS TROUGH. AS SUCH...THE ECMWF PICKS UP MORE ENERGY FROM A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND MERGES IT INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO CLIP NW WATERS SAT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE FOR A FORECAST THIS STRONG...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL GENERATE INCREASED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU AND FRI. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE W AND TRACK NW THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODEL HANDLING OF SUCH FINE DETAILS THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS RECOMMENDED AT THAT POINT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST IN CARIBBEAN...MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL IN TROPICAL N ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN TROUGH SUPPORTING THE WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA WILL PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE AREA BEGINNING FRI. THE GFS CARRIES THE UPPER LOW SQUARELY OVER THE ATLC JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SAT WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE LOW FARTHER SW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIE OVER NORTHERN WATERS ON FRI...BUT THE GFS PINCHES OFF A SURFACE LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO SAT AND DIMINISHES WINDS MORE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH FLATTER AND WEAKER ALOFT...SHOWING MORE UNIFORM 10 KT E-SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION ALOFT BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH/POSSIBLE LOW PRES. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LESSENS THE UNCERTAINTY. WEAK HIGH PRES HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE SW N ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT PERSISTING INTO SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE WATERS WILL RETROGRADE W THROUGH SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING TODAY AS RIDGING TO THE N AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE TRADES OVER SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER LOW PINCHING OFF SE BEGINNING FRI WILL SEND AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO SE WATERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THIS TROUGH...PINCHING OFF A LOW N OF THE PUERTO RICO SAT WITH A SIZABLE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO ITS N OVER E CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS. AS EXPLAINED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION ABOVE...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS PRUDENT HERE TO LESSEN UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.