000 AGXX40 KNHC 060731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 331 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH THE ECMWF ADDED FRI AND SAT. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI. THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING...BUT A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI WITH SE RETURN FLOW. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO PLAY ON SAT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF AND INCREASED TROUGHING IN THE SW GULF. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FRONT IN THE NW GULF. IT CARRIES AND INVERTED TROUGH THAT ENHANCES THE SE FLOW AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THESE FINE FEATURES BEYOND DAY 3...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED PRUDENT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ECMWF ADDED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC . LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST IN CARIBBEAN WITH EC WAVE ADDED IN TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-5 FT. CONFIDENCE WANES AFTER THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING N OF HISPANIOLA MOVES N OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATES WED. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT WILL PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE AREA BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THE GFS CARRYING THE LOW SQUARELY OVER THE ATLC JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SAT WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE LOW FARTHER S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIE OVER NORTHERN WATERS ON FRI...BUT THE GFS AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH OVER NW WATERS AND INCREASES WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH FLATTER AND WEAKER. A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS LESSENS THE UNCERTAINTY. IN THE CARIBBEAN...AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0230 UTC SHOWS 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA. THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 20 KT FOR ITS 03Z FORECAST. THE CORRESPONDING MWW3 SHOWS SEAS TO 6 FT AT THAT TIME. THE GFS AND MWW3 ARE LIKELY A LITTLE LOW HERE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BEEF UP THE GRIDS HERE INITIALLY TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE SW N ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS HERE TO DIMINISH BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND TROUGHING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD AND WILL OCCUR IN THE LEE OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY FRI AS THE TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SAT. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE WATERS WILL RETROGRADE W THROUGH SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING TUE AS RIDGING TO THE N AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE TRADES OVER SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER LOW PINCHING OFF SE OF THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEND AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO SE WATERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THIS TROUGH...PINCHING OFF A LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE SAT WITH A SIZABLE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO ITS N OVER E CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS. AS EXPLAINED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION ABOVE...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS PRUDENT HERE THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.