000
AGXX40 KNHC 051723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
123 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH FRI.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY TUE NIGHT...BUT A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH FRI WITH SE RETURN FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ON THU AND FRI TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 20-25 KT WINDS. 
  
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST IN CARIBBEAN WITH EC WAVE ADDED IN TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 4-5
FT. THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE CHOICE FOR ADJUSTING
THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1345 UTC SHOWS ONE AREA
OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WITH 7 FT SEAS INDICATING A SUBSIDING
TREND. THE GFS PREDICTS THE WINDS OVER THIS AREA TO PULSE TO 25 KT
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
DIURNAL CHANGES. BY MID-WEEK...HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ALONG 27N TO
THE N OF HISPANIOLA...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT AND IN THE LEE OF
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY
FRI.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH 
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH 
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N60W TO 26N65W TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. THE
ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1330 UTC SHOWS 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 26N. THE GUIDANCE IS TOO WEAK HERE INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF DO AGREE ON ENHANCING THE SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS TUE. THERE ARE
A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO CLIP NE WATERS AND THE HIGH
PRES OVER THE AREA. A PREFERENCE TO THE GFS IS TAKEN. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.