000 AGXX40 KNHC 050715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH FRI. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT...BUT A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST IN CARIBBEAN WITH EC WAVE ADDED IN TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTIMETER PASSES JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES SHOW SEAS TO 9 FT. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TOO LOW. THE EC WAVE IS THE CLOSEST TO THE ALTIMETER DATA AND WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS N-NE SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 4-5 FT. THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE CHOICE FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDDED FORECAST. IN THE CARIBBEAN...SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 0206 UTC AND 0250 UTC SHOW 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA. THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 20 KT FOR ITS 03Z FORECAST. THE CORRESPONDING MWW3 SHOWS SEAS TO 8 FT AT THAT TIME AND THE CRYOSAT ALTIMETER PASS FROM 2106 UTC SHOWS SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA. THE GFS AND MWW3 ARE LIKELY A LITTLE LOW HERE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BEEF UP THE GRIDS HERE INITIALLY TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN ATLC TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS HERE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. THE SEAS AT THAT TIME ARE LOW IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE WINDS...SO THEY WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. BY MID-WEEK...HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ALONG 27N TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT LIES FROM 28N65W TO CROOKED ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM 0208 UTC SHOWS SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N AND A CRYOSAT PASS FROM 2103 UTC SHOWS SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE GUIDANCE IS TOO WEAK HERE INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF DO AGREE ON ENHANCING THE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS TODAY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO FIT THE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO CLIP NE WATERS AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. A BLEND OF THE GFS/MWWW3 AND ECMWF/EC WAVE HELPS TO REDUCE ANY UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.