000 AGXX40 KNHC 040445 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE FAR SE GULF THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THEN QUICKLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN BY THIS EVENING. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N94W WILL MOVE ENE TO JUST S OF THE MS DELTA ON MON SETTING UP MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NW WATERS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NE GULF ON MON AND TUE...WITH MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TO THE SW OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE GULF EARLY WED MORNING WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WED...AND SUPPORTING FRESH E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH AREAS OF SE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SUPPORTING NE-E 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ELY TRADES WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT OBSERVED ACROSS ALL WATERS E OF 77W...AND 2-4 FT SEAS NOTED W OF 77W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING AND IMMEDIATELY STALL...LOSING IDENTITY BY EARLY TONIGHT. BY THEN...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL HAVE RETRACTED TO THE E OF THE SE BAHAMAS RELAXING THE GRADIENT TO THE S...WITH ONLY ELY 15-20 KT TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N AND E OF 82W...AND ELY 10-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON MON...WITH MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ONLY TO THE S OF 15N TO THE E OF 78W. AS AN ATLC RIDGE REDEVELOPS ON WED AND THU...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH MODERATE TRADES RETURNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... EXCEPT E-SE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON WED NIGHT AND THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A FRONTAL WAVE LOW OR LOWS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO SE FL...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N55W TO 23N77W. SW 15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 540 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 29N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT IS THEN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE S OF 27N. SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW OF ABOUT 1010 MB DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N68W ON SUN NIGHT...AND QUICKLY SHIFTING NE ALONG THE FRONT. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE A SECOND WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 23N67W ON MON NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD E TONIGHT ACROSS N FL ALONG 29N PUSHING THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT TO A PSN FROM 31N58W TO 25N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 28N55W TO 22N63W LATE TUE...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT BROADENING AND MEANDERING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N BETWEEN 63-76W ON WED AND THU. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. BY WED...THE HIGH WILL BE NEAR 27N73W WITH A RIDGE NW TO 30N80W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON THU WITH THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTATING FROM N OF BERMUDA TO SE GA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.