000 AGXX40 KNHC 030444 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1244 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO A FRONTAL WAVE AT 26N86.5W AND CONTINUING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE LOW IS INTRODUCED ON THE 0300 UTC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING AT THE FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 26N86.5W BASED ON BACKING WINDS ON BUOY 42003 AND CYCLONIC TURNING ON NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E INTO THE STRAITS OF FL TONIGHT WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ENE FROM NEAR 27N95W EARLY THIS MORNING TO 28N88W ON SUN NIGHT SETTING UP SLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NE GULF ON MON AND TUE AND BE POSITIONED NE OF THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND INCREASE THE E-SE WINDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW AND W-CENTRAL PORTION ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORTING NE-E 20- 25 KT/SEAS 7-9 FT OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ELY TRADES WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY STALL AND LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH SUN. BY THEN...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS RELAXING THE GRADIENT WITH ONLY ELY 15-20 KT TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N AND E OF 82W...AND ELY 10-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. A BROAD COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO SE FL WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW...JUST NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO RACE NE ACROSS FL ALONG THE FRONT TO A PSN TO THE N OF 31N THIS EVENING. EXPECT A SW-W 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N...BUT ONLY A 10-15 KT SLY WINDS TO THE S OF 30N E OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT SE TODAY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE TO A PSN FROM 31N70W TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON SUN MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD E ACROSS N FL ALONG 29N THROUGH MON. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...RE- ORIENTATING THE RIDGE FROM E TO W ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL ON TUE INTO WED. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 27N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.