000 AGXX40 KNHC 021840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY SW TO 25N88W AND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NNE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SW FL. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NE 15-20 KT NW OF ...EXCEPT FOR LOWER N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AND AN AREA OF N-NE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT FROM 22N TO 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT...AND SE-S 15 KT WINDS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT JUST ALONG THE FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF...AND HIGH SEAS OF 6-7 FT BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 25N. BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYS SHOW SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER THE NE GULF ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S OF THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE GULF WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE HELPING TO SET OFF THE ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM RECENT ONES WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE QUICKER ON SAT AS HIGH PRES BEHIND IT BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE SW GULF TONIGHT THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS THERE...HOWEVER THIS OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE BRIEF. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE FAR SE WATERS EARLY SAT NIGHT...AND TO JUST E OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW...OR LOWS...MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. THE AREA OF N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY ON SAT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON SETTING UP SLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON MON THE 10-15 KT E-SE RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S AND SW OF THE HIGH. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW AND W-CENTRAL PORTION ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT DUE TO THE COMBINATION BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ELY TRADES ARE NOTED WITH BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA REPORTING SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF ABOUT 17N E OF 80W...AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 5-6 FT SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE SWELLS IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY WHILE ATLC RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR 20-25 KT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE S OF 17N E OF 82W...TRADES WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH TRADES OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE 6-8 FT NE SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TROPICAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NE OF THE AREA AT 33N52W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE N CENTRAL PORTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE PERSISTENTLY DEPICTING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY E REACHING FROM NEAR REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO VICINITY OF DAYTONA BEACH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...FROM NEAR 31N75W TO PALM BEACH SAT NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON. EXPECT A SW-W 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N PER GFS/ECMWF/NAVGEM GUIDANCE BUT ONLY A 10-15 KT SLY WINDS TO THE S OF 30N E OF THE FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD E ACROSS N FL ALONG 29N THROUGH MON. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE FROM E TO W NEAR 27N TUE AND WED. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME BY WED. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING FRONT ON TUE WILL BE ITS SOUTHERN SEGMENT...AND WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS TUE. WINDS BE ON THE GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE RIDGE TUE AND WED WITH GENTLE WINDS IN THE NW PORTION AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE E OF BAHAMAS TUE AND WED AND 1-3 FT W AND NW BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.