000 AGXX40 KNHC 011903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG REGION SW TO 26N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM REPORTS INDICATE A FETCH OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE FRONT...WHILE SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE AHEAD OF IT. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM THE NW-N ARE IN THE FAR SW GULF S OF 21N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 96W. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS TO THE W OF THE FRONT...AND 3-6 FT SEAS E OF THE FRONT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NE ZONE...AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED IN EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST W TO SW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NOT SO FAVORABLE FOR THE FRONT TO MAKE QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO ONLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER PATTERN FLOW TILL THEN WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL REACH FROM NEAR 29N83W TO 26N88W AND STATIONARY TO 19N94W TONIGHT...FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO 26N90W...AND STATIONARY TO 19N94W EARLY FRI...THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. RIPPLES OF WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT AT WHICH TIME THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD OVER WESTERN TEXAS...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THIS TAKING PLACE...WILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO ACQUIRE ENOUGH EASTWARD PUSH FOR IT TO EXIT THE GULF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND GENERALLY LOW SEA STATE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADEINT ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO NE-E 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT. ELSEWHERE..THE BUOYS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW E WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN NE SWELLS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THOSE WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE SE GULF INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS ON WIND AND SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. N SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N ATLC TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 31N SW TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS REMAINS THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS. SLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE PRESENT OVER THE NW WATERS...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 8-9 FT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE THE RESULT OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRI. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IS SLIDES TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COASTS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND REACH NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK SUN...AND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS AS A DISSIPATING FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ZONE 15 SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT MON. BY TUE...MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELLS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.