000 AGXX40 KNHC 010818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 353 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM C-MAN STATIONS VERVA4 IN VERACRUZ HARBOR AND SACV4 ON SACRIFICE ISLAND INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE GMZ023 IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...VALID UNTIL 06Z. IN ADDITION...VERACRUZ REPORTED GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KT BETWEEN 2000-0000 UTC WHILE MINANTITLAN BRIEFLY REPORTED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT. CURRENTLY...ALL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE AND BOTH C-MAN STATIONS ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE. SO... THE DECISION WAS MADE TO DROP THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO W CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT WILL PUSH IT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN E OF THE GULF BY SUN NIGHT. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND FRI WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 8 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF TODAY. THEN... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRES SETTLES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI EVENING. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY SUN EVENING AND BE OVER THE NE GULF BY MON EVENING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN GULF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE ABOVE DESCRIBED COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF. LIGHT RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE CENTRAL GULF N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ABOUT 27N. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES REVEAL AND AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. FARTHER NORTH...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REVEAL E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXTENDS EASTWARD ROUGHLY TO NEAR 70W...AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 75W. SIMILAR WINDS IN STRENGTH... FROM THE SE IN DIRECTION...ARE PERSISTENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N AND W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE ISOLATED WINDS BARBS OF 30 KT ARE ALSO NOTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE. RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF NEAR 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT WITH POSSIBLY SMALL POCKETS OF 10 FT. THE FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY ON SAT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEALED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 8-9 FT OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE THE RESULT OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRI. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COASTS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN FINALLY MOVE EASTWARD EARLY ON SUN STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA SUN MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. HOWEVER...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER ON SUN OVER PARTS OF ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS AS A VERY WEAK FRONT BY LATE MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.