000 AGXX40 KNHC 302345 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 745 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... UPDATED FOR GALE WARNING ZONE GMZ023 MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM C-MAN STATIONS VERVA4 IN VERACRUZ HARBOR AND SACV4 ON SACRIFICE ISLAND INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. FOR THIS REASON...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE 023 IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FOR TONIGHT...VALID UNTIL 06Z. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT...CLEARLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS ANALYZED FROM BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO 26N91W TO INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N91W TO 20N92W. THE 1524 ASCAT PASS NICELY CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE FRONT...AND HIGHLIGHTED THE STRONGER NLY WINDS TO THE N OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALSO OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM SITES ARE REPORTING N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 22N...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT. S OF 22N W OF FRONT WINDS NW-N WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING. THESE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE SE-S 15-20 KT N OF 26N...AND SE-S 10 KT S OF 26N. SEAS E OF THE FRONT ARE 4-5 FT N OF 26N...AND 3-4 FT S OF 26N. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY A BROAD AND VIGOROUS SLOW MOVING MID/ UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA BIG AREA SW TO 25N90W TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N94W EARLY ON THU. STRONGER HIGH PRES DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH A POCKET OF NW-N 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF LASTING INTO EARLY THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT IN THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THU AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N90W...AND STATIONARY TO 19N94W...AND FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N89W AND STATIONARY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING. WINDS AT THAT TIME BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NLY AT 15-20 KT WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT IN THE SW GULF. WEAK LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND IT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT...AND TO E OF THE GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH MON...AND ONCE AGAIN BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN GULF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE ABOVE DESCRIBED COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REVEAL E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXTENDS EASTWARD ROUGHLY TO NEAR 70W...AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 78W. SIMILAR WINDS IN STRENGTH...FROM THE SE IN DIRECTION ...ARE PERSISTENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W AND W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS NOTED SEAS OF 8 FT THERE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE AND E PORTIONS AND FOR POCKETS OF 5-6 FT SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA PER BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT WITH POSSIBLY SMALL POCKETS OF 10 FT. THE FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY ON SAT AS THE GRADEINT RELAXES. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS STRETCHING FROM 31N72W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEALED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH SEA STATE ANALYSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT THROUGHOUT.. EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2 FT SEAS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN RIGID CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES AS THE DAY TO DAY RUN OF THE MODELS HAS CHANGE LITTLE OVERALL WITH RESPECT TO THE FEW UPCOMING CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE THU ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COASTS THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT...REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA SAT NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH SUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THU AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS LATE TODAY...BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... ...GALE WARNING GMZ023 TONIGHT... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE/MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.