000 AGXX40 KNHC 300802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF WATERS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SLY FLOW IS STILL SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 21N96W TO 19N94W THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRES DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH A POCKET OF NW-N 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF LASTING INTO EARLY THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT IN THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON THU AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING. WINDS AT THAT TIME BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NLY AT 15-20 KT WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY ON THU...THEN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD FRI AND SAT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SE WATERS BY SUN. ON THIS DAY...HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN GULF HAS DIMINISHED AND NOW AN AREA OF LIGHT SMOKE...THE RESULT OF NUMEROUS FIRES OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS AREA OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FURTHER THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT MAKES HEADWAY ACROSS THE GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE USED NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES AGAIN REVEALED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MAINLY BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN PARTICULARLY S OF 20N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER...THREE SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SO...THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FRI NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT THEIR PEAK AT NIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH AREA OF THE SE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS... THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS THERE TO MAX OUT AT 9 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEALED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING CURRENTLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE THU ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COASTS THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT...REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA SAT NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH SUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AS THE FRONT NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS LATE TODAY...BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.