000 AGXX40 KNHC 291903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. LATEST BUOY...OIL PLATFORMS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTION WHERE A TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST ALONG A POSITION FROM JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON SW TO JUST INLAND BROWNSVILLE HAS HELPED DIMINISH THE GRADIENT THERE. THE BUOYS JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST ARE REPORTING VEERING WINDS TO THE N-NE AT 10-15 KT. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST PRES ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 28N E OF THE TROUGH. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOW SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE SW GULF...AND IN THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. THE PRESENT SLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE E. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST INLAND THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WILL INCORPORATE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT ONE AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH ONLY MODEST AVAILABLE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT AS IT REACHES FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 24N92W TO 19N96W WED MORNING...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRES DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND FRONT FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF 20-25 KT NLY WINDS OVER THE W CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A POCKET OF NW-N 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF LASTING INTO EARLY THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT...OR MAYBE EVEN 10 FT IN THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON THU AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING. WINDS AT THAT TIME BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NLY AT 10-15 KT WITH A SWATH OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. SEAS AT THAT TIME...OR JUST BEFORE SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4-6 FT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A SHORT WHILE THU UNTIL HIGH PRES BEHIND BUILDS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO GIVE THE FRONT ENOUGH EASTWARD MOMEMTUM TO ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE BASIN DURING SAT. THIS TIMING IS LATER THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT IT SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE GIVEN THAT IT COINCIDES WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY SUN...HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE AND SEAS IN RATHER LOW VALUES THROUGHOUT. A LARGE AREA OF HAZE ORIGINATING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS ON THE DECREASING TREND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FURTHER THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT MAKES HEADWAY ACROSS THE GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE USED NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM TODAY AGAIN REVEALED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN SW OF A LINE FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE INTENSITY. THE SEAS OF 9-11 ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT THU EVENING. THE FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT THEIR PEAK AT NIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH AREA OF THE SE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS THERE TO MAX OUT AT 9 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30N69W WITH A RIDGE SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE 1404 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED MODERATE E-SE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING THAT BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE THU ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COASTS THU NIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF FRONTAL PROGRESS FROM ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST WATERS. WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT... AND STALL INTO SAT MORNING. WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT NOT SO CONDUCIVE FOR FAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT ON SAT AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT AND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO WESTERN BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA SUN. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING WED...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AS THE FRONT NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WED INTO EARLY FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT WITH A SOME POSSIBLY TO 9 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.