000 AGXX40 KNHC 290746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 346 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE ATLC NEAR 29N71W AND LOWER PRES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND MEXICO CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT...PUSHING THE FRONT TO E OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF ON WED WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF...AND HIGH PRES SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY LATE SAT ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS TRANSPORTING THE SMOKE NORTHWARD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LINGER TODAY...WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SMOKE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 NM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 67W AND 73W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF 15N...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN PARTICULARLY S OF 20N W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 9 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9-10 FT. THE FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT THEIR PEAK AT NIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH AREA OF THE SE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS THERE TO MAX OUT AT 9 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N71W DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NE PART. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO S FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING THAT BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATER TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE THU ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT AND FROM NEAR 31N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA SAT NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING WED...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AS THE FRONT NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 OR 7 FT IN THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS WED THROUGH FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUILDING SEAS TO MOSTLY 9 FT WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF 10 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.