000 AGXX40 KNHC 281846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE ATLC NEAR 29N74W AND LOWER PRES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND MEXICO CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 8-10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHER...ABOUT 2 FT...THAN GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL WAVE AND ECMWF WAVES. THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE. ADJUSTED SEAS GRIDS FOR FIRST 12 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE OBSERVED HIGHER VALUES. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT RETREATS N TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON TUE REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...AND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SE. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES PRES WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI PUSHING THE FRONT TO E OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE SW AND W CENTRAL PORTION AS WELL AS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE FRI WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF...AND HIGH PRES SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU...AND SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES THAT SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY ON SAT ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LINGER INTO TUE...WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SMOKE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 NM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LOW CLOUD STREAMERS WITH A TRAJECTORY FROM SE TO NE OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS SUGGEST THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE 20-25 KT WINDS AND LIGHTER WINDS OF 15-20 KT. SEAS OF ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9-10 FT. THE FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO TO BE AT THEIR PEAK AT NIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KT THERE. MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN ON FRI. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH AREA OF THE SE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS THERE TO MAX OUT AT 9 FT WED AND THU. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH AT 29N71W...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO THE AREA JUST TO ITS N. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO S FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTO TUE...THEN BECOME REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING THAT BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATER TUE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD WED IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MID- WEST SECTION OF THE U.S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON FRI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING WED...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AS THE FRONT NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 OR 7 FT IN THE NW WATERS WED THROUGH MOST OF THU BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4 5 FT...AND CONTINUING INTO SAT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUILDING SEAS TO MOSTLY 9 FT WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF 10 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.