000 AGXX40 KNHC 280724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 324 AM EDT MON APR 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N74W AND LOWER PRES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS LATER TODAY BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT RETREATS N TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON TUE REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...AND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SE. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT AND BECOME REINVIGORATED THERE ON FRI. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TODAY WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY WED AND PERSIST ON THU. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRI. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT OVER THE SW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU. A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE WAS SEEN STREAMING NORTH FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST CALLS FOR HAZE WITH VISIBILITY TO 3-5 NM. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9-10 FT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 0000-1200 UTC. MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND REGIONAL WATERS ARE LIKELY 7-8 FT TONIGHT AND 8-9 FT BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WAS AFFECTING THE SE WATERS DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 30N74W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE THU ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF GEORGIA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA...THE LATTER ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER BROAD ARE OF LOW PRES LOCATED SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUILDING SEAS TO 9-10 FT LATE WED. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WED AND THU...REACHING THE ATLC PASSAGES THU NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.