000 AGXX40 KNHC 271745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC RIDGES W ACROSS N FL AND CONTINUES W BETWEEN 30-31N ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS...BUT ABRUPTLY HALT ON MON AFTERNOON AND DRIFT BACK W OVER TX ON MON NIGHT. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL MOVE THE FRONT E AGAIN EARLY TUE...ARRIVING AT THE TX COAST ON TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...AND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW. EXPECT A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAX AT ONLY 10 KT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON TUE NIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15- 20 KT ON WED. CONTINUALLY BUILDING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 20-25 KT EVERYWHERE W OF THE FRONT ON THU. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH ARE STILL EVIDENT ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 19N80W... BUT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 11N NEAR THE COLOMBIAN AND PANAMA COASTS WITH AREAL COVERAGE SHRINKING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRESH-STRONG WINDS/SEAS TO 9 FT EXPECTED ARE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AND FRESH-STRONG ELY WINDS AND MAX SEAS OF 9 FT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH EVENING-NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE E OF 75W...INCLUDING THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING DATA STILL DETECTING AN OCCASIONAL TSTM MAINLY NEAR 22N67W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N60W TO 27N68W WITH SOME EVIDENCE FURTHER SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO THE N OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THIS SW SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF 72W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH LATER TODAY...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO THE N OF 25N BETWEEN 65-55W ON MON-TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A SW-W-NW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N FROM MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL WILL GENERATE COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH ALONG 24N BETWEEN 65- 55W ON THU BEFORE SUBSIDING. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N74W AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT E ALONG 31N TO NEAR 72W ON MON...THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON TUE WITH RIDGES EXTENDING SE TO 24N62W AND EXTENDING W TO 31N80W. THE RIDGES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A SINGLE RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST ON THU NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FL ON FRI EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.