000 AGXX40 KNHC 270745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR 28N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W-NW TO SE LOUISIANA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ON INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO A POSITION OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST ON SUN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT WITH THIS WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE MORNING REACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 20N97W TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED. THEN...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU. A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF BY FRI. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY THU WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W AND E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9 FT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BLOWING BETWEEN 0000-1200 UTC. MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND REGIONAL WATERS ARE LIKELY 7-8 FT TONIGHT AND 8-9 FT BY MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE SE WATERS ALONG 22N W OF 71W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING DATA DETECTING ISOLATED TSTMS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SE WATERS TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE N WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 30N75W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE N WATERS AS IT MOVES E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVER ZONE AMZ115. SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE E WATERS WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATING SEAS 0F 6-8 FT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 27N THROUGH MON. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUILDING SEAS TO 9-10 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WED AND THU...REACHING THE ATLC PASSAGES THU NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.