000 AGXX40 KNHC 261745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N85W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE MS DELTA JUST TO THE S OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E-W ALONG 30.5N. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST ON SUN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 29N ON MON NIGHT THEN RETRACT E ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE MS DELTA TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED...AND FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THU. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. MODERATE E-SE FLOW SW OF THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED PULSES OF LOCALLY STRONG SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TUE COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAX AT ONLY 10 KT THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON TUE NIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON WED. CONTINUALLY BUILDING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 20-25 KT EVERYWHERE W OF THE FRONT ON THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH ARE STILL EVIDENT ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING DATA STILL DETECTING AN OCCASIONAL TSTM IN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FRESH/STRONG WINDS/SEAS TO 9 FT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. ADDITIONALLY EXPECT FRESH/STRONG ELY WINDS...SEAS TO 9 FT...TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO TO ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA...AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING DATA STILL DETECTING AN OCCASIONAL TSTM. THIS BROAD AND DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ABOUT 240 NM TO THE NW OF TROUGH...BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF TCU ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY E OF 60W. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH A FEW TS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL MERGE WITH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FRONTAL TROUGH CONVECTION TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 28N67W 1017 MB...AND FORECAST TO SHIFT SE TODAY WITH A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CRESTING JUST TO THE E OF THE WEATHER JUST MENTIONED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL ACCELERATE REACHING FROM 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN END OF FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN...WHILE THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT TO THE N OF 26N CONTINUES E AND PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON MON-TUE...WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A SW-W-NW 20 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST TO NEAR 31N78W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT E TO NEAR 31N76W ON SUN...NEAR 31N72W ON MON...THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON TUE WITH RIDGES EXTENDING SE TO 22N55W AND EXTENDING W TO 31N80W ON WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.