000 AGXX40 KNHC 251734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. Q-STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES 1015 MB IS CENTERED ALONG A RIDGE NEAR W-CENTRAL FL WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE N- CENTRAL WATERS. A VERY WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT N TO THE E-CENTRAL PORTION THIS EVENING AND PUSH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT BACK NW OF THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NE GULF ON SAT. BY SUN...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED E ACROSS FL TO A POSITION OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST WITH A RIDGE W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS. MODERATE E-SE FLOW SW OF THE RIDGE ON SAT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH ON SUN WITH SMALL AREAS OF STRONG SE FLOW ON SUN EVENING THROUGH MON ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NW WATERS ON TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST REACHING FROM THE MS DELTA TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTEND WSW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING DATA STILL DETECTING AN OCCASIONAL TSTM. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH/STRONG WINDS/SEAS TO 9 FT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA LATE EACH NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY EXPECT FRESH/STRONG ELY WINDS... SEAS TO 9 FT...TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN NIGHT...MON NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING DATA STILL DETECTING AN OCCASIONAL TSTM. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ABOUT 240 NM TO THE NW OF TROUGH...BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF TCU. FURTHER TO THE NW A SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 30N72W 1019 MB...AND FORECAST TO SHIFT SE TODAY WITH A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW TO THE FL STRAITS EXPECTED TO RETRACT E. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST TONIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT EVENING. THE SOUTHERN END OF FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN...WHILE THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT TO THE N OF 26N CONTINUES E AND PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON MON- TUE WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A SW-W-NW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST TO NEAR 31N78W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT E TO NEAR 31N77W ON SUN...NEAR 31N73W ON MON... NEAR 30N71W ON TUE- WED WITH RIDGE W TO N FL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.