000 AGXX40 KNHC 220733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 332 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST AND PREVIOUS SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE HIGH PRES PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE GENTLE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW WATERS WHERE SEAS CONTINUE AT COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WED. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU NIGHT... AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE...THE HIGHEST OF THESE S OF 15N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER A ALONG PERIOD OF SEAS AT 8 FT AND HIGHER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SEAS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE TREND FOR RELATIVELY LOW SEA HEIGHT VALUES TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...TO LESS THAN 8 FT...THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N65W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL W OF THE TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT E OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO THE FAR SE WATERS...AND HAS SHRUNK IN SIZE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST WATERS. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN SE TO S SWELLS ARE NOTED N OF 27N E OF THE THE BAHAMAS. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT E OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 11 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. HIGHER WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG WITH SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER WILL BY PASS THE AREA JUST TO THE N OF 31N THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.