000 AGXX40 KNHC 190815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N85W AND TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST BUOY AND C-MAN STATIONS ARE REPORTING NW TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-89W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT. IN ADDITION...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0326 UTC LAST NIGHT CAPTURED THESE WINDS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER W OF THE FRONT WITH BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA NOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NLY FLOW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 93W. W OF 93W...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE E-SE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. ELSEWHERE W OF THE LOW AND FRONT...SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FAR SE GULF ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO TO MOVE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SE OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND WED...OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES E ACROSS THE SE GULF...AND TOWARDS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND NW CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRES NE OF BERMUDA IS BRINGING A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ATLC S OF 24N...AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A COUPLE OF SHIPS RECENTLY REPORTED SUCH SPEEDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 11 FT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT S TO NEAR 30N BY SUN EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AND WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEEDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER THIS MORNING...AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 20N BY SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. MIXED ELY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NE SWELL TO MIX ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN MAINTAING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT SE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED COMBINED 8 FT SEAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0144 UTC LAST NIGHT CAPTURED SOME OF THOSE WINDS. THE SAME PASS CAPTURES A SWATH OF E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 35 NM OF THE HISPANIOLA COAST. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY E TO SE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. VERY NEAR UPCOMING CHANGES WILL BE RELATED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 31N79W THIS EVENING WITH FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL THEN REACH TO NEAR 31N78W AS 1011 MB WITH THE COLD FRONT TO 28N78W AND TO NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT WILL DEVELOP TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 31N78W AS 1010 MB NEAR DAYBREAK SUN WITH THE FRONT TO 28N78W TO CENTRAL CUBA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS N WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A FETCH OF STRONG NLY WINDS TO THE W AND NW OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE S TO NEAR 28N BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REACHES TO NEAR 31N77W AS 1011 MB. BY THEN...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH TO NEAR 28N74W AND TO EASTERN CUBA. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 11 OR 12 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS BEHIND THE LOW ON SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT ON MON AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD BY MON AFTERNOON...AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY TUE BEFORE MOVING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS REACH LOW VALUES OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA DURING TUE AND WED...HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS WED FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.