000 AGXX40 KNHC 141819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 219 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SREF AND GEFS FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF TUE...WITH THE SREF ALSO SHOWING A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS CARRIES 40 KT WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE COAST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND INCREASES WINDS TO 45 KT IN THE SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH ALONG THE W CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT DOES SHOW 45 KT IN THE SW GULF. PAST PERFORMANCE DICTATES THAT THE STRONGER SOLUTION GENERALLY PREVAILS IN SUCH A PATTERN...SO THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ALSO...THESE MODELS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RESOLUTION TO PROPERLY ACCOUNT FOR THE OROGRAPHIC IMPACTS ON THE WINDS IN SUCH SITUATIONS. THEY GENERALLY RUN LOW. GIVEN THIS FACT AND THE ONE IN THREE CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE SREF...A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUE AFTERNOON IN THE SW GULF. THE MODEL TIMING IS NOT TERRIBLY DIFFERENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND NOW TAKE IT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY WED BEFORE LIFTING IT N AS A WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF THU. FOR WAVES...THE NWPS AND MWW3 ARE AGAIN TOO FAST TO SUBSIDE THE SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THESE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT UP TO THE HIGHER SEAS OF THE EC WAVE IN THEIR MORE RECENT RUNS. THE SWELL WAS ADJUSTED TO COME DOWN SLOWER LIKE THE EC WAVE. BY FRIDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A LOW IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ONLY HAS MINIMAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND NOW CARRY THE COLD FRONT VERY CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE SHIFTING IT BACK N ON THU. HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THEY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE LACK OF RIDGING TO THE N WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL SPOT WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A WEAK TRADE WIND REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST IS AS GOOD AS ANY...AND IS GENERALLY BETTER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NWPS SOLUTION LOOKS GOOD HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT EXITS THE GULF AND MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC. ONCE THE FRONT IS IN THE SW N ATLC...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND IT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND NOW CARRY IT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY WED MORNING...A STRONGER SOLUTION SEEMS IN ORDER. THE GFS IS ALSO CLEARLY FAVORED BY FRIDAY WHEN THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CARRIES IT ACROSS FLORIDA SAT AND INTO THE SW N ATLC BY SAT EVENING. THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... STORM WARNING TUE. GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.