000
AGXX40 KNHC 140700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED 
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE GALE EVENT IN THE WESTERN GULF 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN 
THE W CENTRAL GULF TUE MORNING AND SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. GFS 
SHOWS WINDS TO 45 KT IN SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. PAST PERFORMANCE 
DICTATES THAT THE STRONGER SOLUTION GENERALLY PREVAILS IN SUCH A 
PATTERN. HENCE EVENING SHIFT DECIDED TO ELEVATE WARNING FROM 
HIGH END GALE 45 KT TO LOW END STORM 50 KT BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. 
MODELS FALLING IN LINE...WITH SOLUTION TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER 
MOVING FRONT. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 20 FT IN SW GULF.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING NORTHWARD WILL SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT 
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLIDES N OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO 
THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TRADES BELOW A 
STRONG BREEZE IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL SPOT WHERE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WEAK 
TRADE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH 
WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE 
FRONT BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH 
CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE OBS AND ASCAT CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS 
AND HIGHER SEAS ALONG A SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE 
TROUGH GETS PICKED UP BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 
PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY 
EXISTS REGARDING SPEED OF FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC. 
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE 
COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT REACHES THE SW N ATLC...EC ENSEMBLE 
MEAN AND GFS WERE USED TO REFLECT FASTER FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED THROUGH THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT AND TUE. 
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...                           
     STORM WARNING TUE. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.