000 AGXX40 KNHC 130715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS MAGNITUDE OF GALE EVENT IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE SREF AND GEFS PROBABILITY FORECASTS SHOW A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THE W CENTRAL TUE MORNING AND IN THE SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN THE SW GULF TUE. NWPS AND MWW3 APPEAR TOO FAST TO SUBSIDE SEA HEIGHTS BEHIND FRONT AND TOO LOW WITH THE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS. EC WAVE WAS USED TO HEDGE THE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 TOWARD HIGHER MAXIMUM SEAS TO 19 FT...AND MORE PERSISTENT SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM TAMPA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM FORT MYERS TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MON AND THEN SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE PASSING N OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LEAVE A MUCH WEAKER TRADE WIND PATTERN IN PLACE BY MID WEEK. MODERATE TRADES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N THROUGH TUE...BECOMING FRESH TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEVERAL VORTICES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS BETWEEN 23N-26N E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY N AND NW OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE IT DRIFTS NW AND SLOWLY BECOMES DIFFUSE. RIDGE STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD MON THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING LATE MON NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.