000 AGXX40 KNHC 121837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE EXPECTED GALE EVENT IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE SREF AND GEFS FORECASTS SHOW A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THE W CENTRAL TUE MORNING AND IN THE SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE SW GULF WHILE THE GFS ALSO HAS WINDS THIS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN ZONE GMZ017. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO CARRY THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE 12Z GFS IS GENERALLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. FOR WAVE...THE NWPS AND MWW3 ARE TOO FAST TO SUBSIDE THE SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND APPEAR TOO LOW WITH THE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS. THE MWW3 ENSEMBLE HIGHEST WAVES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC WAVE FORECAST. THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO HEDGE THE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 TOWARD HIGHER MAXIMUM SEAS AND MORE PERSISTENT SWELL. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GALE EVENT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MON AND THEN SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY PASSES N OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAKER TRADE WIND REGIME IN PLACE BY MID WEEK. THE GFS FORECAST IS AS GOOD AS ANY...AND IS GENERALLY BETTER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NWPS SOLUTION LOOKS GOOD HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON WITH THE ECMWF ADDED FOR TUE AND WED. THE MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT. AS STATED ABOVE...THE GENERAL TREND WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE 12Z GFS IS GENERALLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. ONCE THE FRONT IS IN THE SW N ATLC...THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN HEDGES TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. THE FORECAST WAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF AS A RESULT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WED THROUGH THU. WAVES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FIELD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.