000 AGXX40 KNHC 120651 RRB MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE TO W-SW ACROSS THE N GULF THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH SUN AND MON WHILE MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT WITH VERY STRONG N FLOW AND GALES LIKELY BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HIGH PROBABILITY OF GALES BEHIND FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE WED AND THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD EXTENDED ALL THE WAY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA HAS RETREATED AND BECOME DIFFUSE REMNANT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NW INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH WILL SHIFT NE INTO N CENTRAL ATLC AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND SUN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AS PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 25N65W TO CUBA WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN THEN DISSIPATE. A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA TO GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE TUE AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN THU. GFS STALLS IT ALONG 28N WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF BOUNDARY THROUGH FRI. THE ECMWF BRINGS NORTHERN PORTION OF FRONT TO 65W N OF 27N...WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLS NEAR THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.