000 AGXX40 KNHC 111829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WILL MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM NE FLORIDA TO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW IN THE E HALF OF THE GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IN THE W HALF OF THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF SUN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NW GULF. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGGING INTO THE NW GULF WHILE GFS HAS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS WITH LESS ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE BASIN. THE GFS SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE GMZ017 AND GMZ023 MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TUE AS N PORTION OF FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A LARGER AREA OF GALE WARNINGS ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS. WE CONTINUE TO DO A 50-50 BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL BEST SOLUTION BECOMES MORE APPARENT. THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 60 PERCENT FOR BOTH OF THE ZONES AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE WED INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WILL MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD EXTENDED ALL THE WAY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE COSTA RICA HAS RETREATED BACK TO THE NW INITIALLY AS A WARM FRONT...IS NOW A DIFFUSE REMNANT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN THROUGH SAT MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO LOSE DEFINITION. ATLC RIDGING SHIFTING N OF THE BASIN HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR 77W WHILE NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN WELL IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE...STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 14-16 FT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON... DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MEANWHILE MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH SAT THEN WILL ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WILL MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH SAT. A BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXTENDS JUST W OF THE FRONT...MAINLY E OF 65W ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 7-9 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE COMPLETELY E OF 65W TONIGHT. A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA TO SE GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE NE OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT-SAT... WITH THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRODUCING A GRADIENT INDUCED ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N BY EARLY SUN. CONTINUE TO PREFER FLATTER WAVE DEPICTION AND LESS GRADIENT WIND THERE...USING A MODERATE BLEND OF THE ECMWF INTO FCST. WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WILL BECOME S-SW AT FRESH LEVELS EARLY TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION TUE POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER THE FAR W-NW PORTION THEREAFTER. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS STALLING IT ALONG 28N WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF IT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE CARRIES THE FRONT ALL THE WAY TO 67W BY THU ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.