000 AGXX40 KNHC 101857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH SAT THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRES ACROSS SE U.S. SHIFTING E-NE TOWARDS W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF NEXT S/W MOVING INTO CENTRAL U.S. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FADING NNE SWELL MOVING THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STILL YIELDING SEAS NEAR 6 FT THERE. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS W HALF. A LLVL VORT CENTER HAS SHIFTED WWD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS THERE AND ACROSS THE KEYS...AND WAS DEPICTED BY A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTY ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE. SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING 7-8 FT ATTM IN WIND AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH RTOFS SHOWS CURRENT MAX REMOVED TO S OF STRAITS AND CLOSER TO CUBA. RIDGE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS ATLC THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE REBUILDING ACROSS REGION AND INTO SE U.S. AND GULF BASIN SUN...JUST AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NW. SOMEWHAT DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN EVOLVE THROUGH TUE AS ECMWF SHOWS BROADER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND DIGGING INTO NW GULF...WHILE GFS FORECASTS SHARPER TROUGH AXIS...WITH LESS ENERGY DIGGING INTO BASIN AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION. GFS NOW FORECASTING BRIEF GALES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TUE WHILE N PORTION OF FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS...WHILE ECMWF BLASTS STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE WITH POTENTIALLY LARGE AREA OF GALES NW AND W PORTIONS. FOR THE MOMENT WE ARE BLENDING 50-50 THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE CORRECT SOLUTION BECOMES MORE APARENT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS FRONT HAS STALLED OVERNIGHT AND BEGUN TO DRIFT NW BY LATE MORNING AND HAS EXITED SW PORTIONS AND PANAMA-COSTA RICA AREA AND MOVING INLAND TO NICARAGUA. N TO NE FLOW 20-25 KT STILL DEPICTED W OF FRONT BY LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS. OUR WAVE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ACROSS SW PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS WITH NO OBS OR ALTIMETER PASSES TO VERIFY...AND NWPS MAX OF 9 FT HAS BEEN BEST GUESS DUE TO SHALLOW WATERS AND FETCH LIMITED BLOCKING BY OFFSHORE ISLANDS. NELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT MAINTAINING SEAS NEAR BUOY 42057 NEAR 8 FT ATTM AND WILL NOT LIKELY SUBSIDE TO 6 FT UNTIL MORNING. ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING NE WILL PASS DUE N OF BASIN AND TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER NE TO E ACROSS BASIN. MODELS STILL INDICATING COLOMBIAN NOCTURNAL MAX PULSING TO GALES EACH OF THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS INTO N CENTRAL ATLC AND WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY SUN- MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FRONT HAS STALL ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH NE WINDS 20 KT THROUGH TURKS AND CAICOS PER RECENT ASCAT PASS. NW-W SWELL BEHIND FRONT PROPAGATING BEHIND FRONT...WITH N TO NE WINDSEA CURRENTLY BEING GENERATED BEHIND FRONT. FRONT TO MOVE A BIT MORE SE ACROSS PORTIONS E OF 70W THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE NW THROUGH FRI AND DISSIPATING. MODELS SUGGEST SHEARLINE STRUCTURE TO FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS E PORTIONS AS THIS OCCURS. FLOW ACROSS AREA TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH SAT AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS NE AND SLOWLY REALIGNS YIELDING MODERATE ELY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY EARLY SAT. DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN MODELS IN DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE NE OF BAHAMAS FRI-SAT...WITH ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRODUCING GRADIENT INDUCED ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N BY EARLY SUN. ATTM HAVE OPTED FOR FLATTER WAVE AND LESS GRADIENT WIND THERE...AND A MODERATE BLEND OF ECMWF IN FCST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.