000 AGXX40 KNHC 100756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH SUN WITH ECMWF ADDED ON MON. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN AND LOW CONFIDENCE MON. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED BEHIND THE UNUSUALLY STRONG APRIL COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE GULF YESTERDAY. 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 27N91W IS DRIVING THE LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE FOUND ACROSS THE GULF. NW SWELL IN THE EASTERN GULF HAS SUBSIDED...WITH THE LATEST REPORTS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF TODAY...LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N-30N THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH SUN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MON. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE GULF...WITH THE UKMET LOOKING LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUE MORNING WHILE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS CAPS WINDS AT 25 KT AT THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SEEMED BEST FOR NOW. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK WITH THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED APRIL DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 0310 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA THROUGH 15N81W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 81W WITH N WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE N COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT HERE...UNLIKE THE WEAKER GFS WHOSE FORECAST LOOKS FINE EVERYWHERE ELSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY W OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SEAS WERE ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE 7-10 FOOT OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND AGAIN. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. THEY ALSO APPEAR LIKELY ON SUN MORNING. THE GFS PREDICTS GALES DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST MODEL UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES. THE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE GFS. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN ECMWF ADDED TO BLEND THROUGH MON. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0226 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW A STRONG BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N WATERS BUT IMPLIES THAT THEY CONTINUE IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF APPROXIMATELY 28N. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO SPIN UP SOME ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT BY LATE SUN. THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF AND CARRIES A SYSTEM NEAR 55W SUN EVENING THROUGH MON EVENING. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FARTHER E WITH THIS ENERGY...FOCUSING PRECIPITATION JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THESE FINE-SCALE DIFFERENCES...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST FOR SAT ONWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.