000 AGXX40 KNHC 091849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS NNW FLOW 20-25 KT STILL LIGHTING UP E HALF OF BASIN ATTM AND ACCELERATING THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. A MORNING ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 10-11 FT AS FAR E AS 83.5W WITH ASSUMED MAX OF 13 FT JUST TO W OF BUOY 42003 WITH SEVERAL BUOYS AT 10 FT AS FAR N AS BUOY 42039. SUPPORTING HIGH NEAR TEXAS-LA BORDER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TONIGHT AS FRONT PROGRESSES FARTHER E ACROSS ATLC...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. MODEST HIGH PRES RIDGE TO PREVAIL THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING E TO SE...AND MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY ENSURE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW SHELF WATERS FRI THROUGH WEEKEND. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS COLD FRONT LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK WITH GFS FORECAST...BUT FINE CU LINE ALONG TAIL END OF FRONT HAS RACED S DOWN NICARAGUAN COAST AND THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS...AND NOW ENTERING N BORDER OF COSTA RICA...AND WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FCSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NNW FLOW 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT...AND IS LIKELY SPILLING S DOWN W COAST OF NICARAGUA...AGAIN ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT NEEDED. BUOY 42056 REMAINS AROUND 9 FT ATTM...WITH SEAS TO THE S EXPECTED 7-9 FT BEHIND FRONT TO HONDURAS COAST...WHILE A MORNING ALTIMETER PASS SUGGESTED SEAS NEAR 8 FT AS FAR E AS 19.5N83W...AND 2-3 FT ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE. NWPS GUIDANCE WAS NOT ANY BETTER THAN WW3 FOR THIS EVENT AND MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF PREVIOUS FCSTS AND REACH THE PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER...POSSIBLY INTO BOCA DEL TORROS AREA BY EARLY THU BEFORE STALLING. FRONTAL REMNANTS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NW ACROSS NW PORTIONS THU AND FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE W OF FRONT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF SHIFTS ENE INTO ATLC THU NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER NE TO E AND PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...AND NOCTURNAL GALES ARE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE NE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY AS IT DRAGS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...AND CONTINUES E-SE ACROSS N PORTIONS...WITH SLY GALES OCCURRING IN NARROW LINE AHEAD OF FRONT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY CAPTURED THESE GALES JUST S OF 29N ALONG 71W. WLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT 25-30 KT DRIVING SEAS 9-12 FT N OF 28N AND WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE REASONABLE WITH THIS. FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E-SE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND EXIT DISCUSSION AREA THU MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST FRONT TO HANG UP NEAR E TIP OF CUBA BY WED MORNING THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW THU AND FRI. GALES AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LIFT NE OUT OF AREA AROUND 21Z...WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT ACROSS AREA BY 12Z THU. WNW SWELL BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS THU EVENING AND NIGHT AND REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS FRI MORNING. HIGH PRES N OF LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO INDUCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT ALONG BOUNDARY FOR NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.