000 AGXX40 KNHC 090754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UNUSUALLY STRONG APRIL TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF REGION THAT FORCED A BRIEF GALE IN THE SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A STORM FORCE WINDS EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK LIES IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WHERE A 0332 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. THERE ARE MULTIPLE OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE REGION. THE ONLY ONES SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THOSE WITH ANEMOMETERS WELL ABOVE THE 10-METER BENCH MARK. THESE WINDS SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE TIME OF THE PASS. IF THERE WAS A GALE...IT SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY 06Z. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GALE HERE AND THE SREF AND GEFS HAVE ZERO PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS HERE FROM 06Z ONWARD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT A GALE WARNING HERE BUT WINDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ALLOW FOR A LARGER AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE THU MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUN. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT ACCORDING TO THE 0246 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND ANY FUNNELING ENHANCEMENTS E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DIMINISH. NONE OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GALE HERE THIS MORNING...LIKELY BECAUSE THEY POORLY RESOLVE THE TERRAIN IMPACTS IN THE REGION. THE GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION. AGAIN...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK WITH THIS UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED APRIL DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH. WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SEAS WERE ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE 9-12 FOOT OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION. SEAS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW RUNS COUNTER TO THE NORTHWARD MOVING CURRENT. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY EARLY THU...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO SHRINK EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD LATE THU THROUGH SAT...ALLOWING THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND AGAIN. GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. THEY ALSO APPEAR LIKELY ON SUN MORNING. THE GFS PREDICTS GALES DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST MODEL UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES. THE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE GFS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0248 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N76W TO 23N80W. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SREF AND GEFS BOTH SHOW THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING LATER TODAY AND DROPPING TO ZERO BY THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS HERE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. GIVEN THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THESE MODELS ARE INITIALIZED TOO WEAK WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL HEDGE TOWARD A STRONGER SCENARIO. THIS ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS STRONGER WINDS THAN THE MODELS BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND JACKSONVILLE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOMMODATE THE STRONGER OBSERVATIONS. THIS COLD FRONT IS THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR THE FRONT FROM WED EVENING ON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.