000 AGXX40 KNHC 081839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS REACHED GALE FORCE THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR SW GULF OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO...AS HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM NE MEXICO TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SW GULF EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WAS ENHANCED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MIGRATED FROM NE MEXICO LATE SUNDAY...TO THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF BELIZE THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM VERACRUZ HARBOR INDICATED SUSTAINED 10M WINDS TO 37 KT WITH GUSTS TO 41 KT. REPORTS FROM NEARBY ISLA DE SACRIFICIOS OFF VERACRUZ WERE SHOWING 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1530 UTC INDICATED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OFF VERACRUZ HARBOR AS WELL. NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AREA OF GALES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NW PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CIUDAD DE CARMEN ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W. A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SURGE OF WINDS. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 11 FT OVER NE GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR THU AND FRI...MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK A BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU THROUGH SAT. SURFACE PRES MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ALLOWING MINIMAL RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN IMPACT BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW SAT THROUGH SUN. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE TONIGHT OFF BELIZE INTO THE BAY ISLANDS OFF HONDURAS. THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES 35 KT WINDS...THE UKMET 25 KT...AND THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE. PART OF THIS PREDICATED ON LOW PRES/TROUGHING ALONG THE BELIZE COAST. WILL HOLD 30 KT AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH ADDED DRAINAGE EFFECTS ALLOWING WINDS TO POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY FRI AND EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO EMERGE OFF THE SOUTH GEORGIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATE STRONG S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALMOST REACHING GALE FORCE AROUND 31N. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD PROBABILITY FOR GALES NORTH OF 31N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD BERMUDA BY LATE TUE...BUT ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES FOR GALE SOUTH OF 31N. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT...SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 11 FT NEAR 31N. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.