000 AGXX40 KNHC 080746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 346 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TUE AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND IS NO LONGER FORECASTING A BRIEF GALE HERE. IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY FOCUSED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF...30 KT...FARTHER E AWAY FROM THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE GEFS MEAN HAS ALSO ADOPTED THIS SCENARIO. DESPITE THE MODEL TRENDS HERE...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIGGING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF REGION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS MEAN PREDICTING A 45-50 KT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL NOT BE A GALE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 03Z SREF NOW SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS...BUT DOES SO AT 15Z TODAY...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL SIDE ON THE STRONG SIDE HERE AND CONTINUE WITH A WARNING FOR A BRIEF GALE LATER TODAY. WAVES WERE BUMPED UP IN THE GALE REGION. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACCORDING TO SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS. WINDS AND WAVES WERE ADJUSTED IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS TO MATCH THESE REPORTS. WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE HERE THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEFORE SUNSET TODAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW N WINDS TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED EVENING...STRETCHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUAN BORDER BY EARLY THU...THEN LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO SHRINK IN AREA WED THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD LATE THU THROUGH SAT...ALLOWING THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND AGAIN. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER A GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. THE GFS PREDICTS GALES DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST MODEL UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES. THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER TO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER N WATERS BY EARLY WED. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 00Z/07 FORECAST THAT SHOWED GALES. THERE IS A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEFS...AND NONE OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GALES. THE SREF SHOWS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES BRIEFLY AT 12Z WED. WITH THE MODELS GENERALLY BACKING OFF AND LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL CONTINUE TO NOT POST A GALE WARNING HERE. THIS COLD FRONT IS THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR THE FRONT FROM WED EVENING ON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.