000 AGXX40 KNHC 071832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES REMAINS THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SW GULF ON TUESDAY. 09 UTC SREF OUTPUT SHOWS GALE PROBABILITY UP FROM PREVIOUSLY...WITH 20% OFF VERACRUZ BY TUE AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS 30 KT WINDS AT THE SAME TIME AND PLACE AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS NO PROBABILITY OF GALES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR SW GULF...WITH STATION MMMT REGISTERING AS LOW AS 1002 MB. THE LOW HAS LIKELY OPENED UP THIS MORNING AND PRESSURE IS RISING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. BUT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. GIVEN THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOCAL EFFECTS DUE TO THE TERRAIN OFF VERACRUZ...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER ISSUE IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. STRONG GUST...AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS AS THE LINE SWEEPS ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP IN THE FAR NW GULF LATE THU INTO FRI...ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT EAST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS ALONG WITH THE EARLIER EC ENSEMBLE SHOWING A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH AN INCREASE IN SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED. STRONG SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED EVENING...STRETCHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUAN BORDER BY EARLY THU...THEN LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO SHRINK IN AREA WED AND THU. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND AGAIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 28N. A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF NE FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GFS SHOW WINDS TO 30 KT...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING ONLY 20 KT. SREF SHOWS ZERO PROBABILITY OF GALES SOUTH OF 30N THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY WED...AND WILL STALL FROM 27N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY THU. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N THROUGH THU...WITH SEAS REACHING 12 FT NEAR 30N. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTH...EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 25N BY SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.