000 AGXX40 KNHC 070748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TUE AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND IS FORECASTING A BRIEF GALE HERE. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ONLY SHOW 30 KT AT BEST. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...THE SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 20 PERCENT IN ITS 21Z RUN TO 10 PERCENT IN ITS 03Z RUN. WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS MEAN ARE PREDICTING A 45-50 KT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL NOT BE A GALE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DIFFERENCE MAKER APPEARS TO BE THE TIMING OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GULF...WITH THE GFS DOING SO SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIGGING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF REGION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL SIDE ON THE STRONG SIDE HERE GIVEN THE GEFS SUPPORT. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF HONDURAS. WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE HERE THROUGH TUE MORNING WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS N WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT TUE EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED EVENING...STRETCHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUAN BORDER BY EARLY THU...THEN LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO SHRINK IN AREA WED AND THU. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND AGAIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE TODAY IS WHETHER TO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER N WATERS BY EARLY WED. THE GFS FORECASTS GALES N OF 30N AT 12Z AND 18Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THERE IS A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEFS...AND NONE OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GALES. A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS...SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN WITHOUT MENTION OF GALE HERE. THIS COLD FRONT IS THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR THE FRONT FROM WED EVENING ON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO 27N65W TO NW HAITI THU MORNING AND SETTLES ALONG 24N BY FRI AS IT WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TUE S OF 20N W OF 95W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.