000 AGXX40 KNHC 061828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM TEXAS THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND OUT OF THE GULF WATERS. AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWLY LIFTING OVER THE NW GULF. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...AND WILL DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AGAIN INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY MON AS A COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO DROP VISIBILITY TO 3 NM TONIGHT IN AREAS IN THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 1003 MB LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NORTHERN YUCATAN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT BY EARLY MON OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS A RESULT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MON MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BY TUE MORNING...THEN SWEEP SE OF THE GULF BY LATE TUE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SW GULF WHERE STRONG NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT THE LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MON. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER TEXAS MON AND TUE. HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WILL FUNNEL THE WINDS. AN ADDED FACTOR IS THAT INCREASING SUN ANGLES OVER THE FEW WEEKS HAVE ALLOWED THE WATER TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES SINCE THE LAST SHOT OF COOL AIR...ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING. HAVE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE FOUND ITS FOOTING AND IS INDICATING STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE FAR SW GULF...MORE REASONABLE THAN EARLIER RUNS THAT WERE SHOWING ONLY 20 KT WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE STRONGER GFS...BUT IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE REASONS NOTED ABOVE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE REINFORCED FRONT INTO WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON...ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NW CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE...REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY WED...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUAN BORDER BY EARLY THU...THEN LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO SHRINK IN AREA MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH THE ONLY STRONG TRADES REMAINING SOUTH OF 15N OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LOCALLY ENHANCED E TRADES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N60W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE N OF 30N NEAR 77W...SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT EARLY TUE AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SHOW ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND INDICATE THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY WED. STRONG S TO SW WINDS WILL PROCEED THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL TUE. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TUE INTO WED N OF 27N WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A MIX OF SWELL. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY WED...BEFORE STALLING FROM 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM 25N65W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS TO BERMUDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.