000 AGXX40 KNHC 060746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 346 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FAR NW GULF N OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH TSTMS INLAND N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND THE NE GULF MON. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOSTLY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE COLD AIR COMES IN TWO BATCHES...THE LEADING FRONT PASSING INTO THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT AND THE SECONDARY SURGE COMING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS IN THE NW GULF BEHIND THE SECONDARY SURGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE MORE POSITIVELY TILTED ALOFT BY TUE AND CARRY THE FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GEFS MEAN FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. THESE FASTER SOLUTIONS MAKE IT LESS LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED A STRONG BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OCCURS PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF EASTWARD...WITH THE UNUSUAL PATTERN SUPPORTING A STORM FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT NO GALE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE GULF THROUGH WED...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE N OF THE BASIN ALONG 28N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KT TONIGHT INTO MON WHILE SPREADING NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT W OF 84W MON. THAT COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TUE AFTERNOON. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS MEAN AREA FAVORED OVER THE GFS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH MEANS CAPPING THE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 25 KT AND GOING WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONT THAN THE GFS. THE FRONT WILL STALL WED AND LIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SEEN BY THE 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE TRADES WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE PEAK UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. THE RIDGING WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU...ALTHOUGH STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS WED INTO THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT S OF 15N SUN THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE WITH A SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL MERGING WITH A SET OF NE-E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF 27N LATE MON INTO TUE AS A STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON TUE. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED ALOFT WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEAN. LOOK FOR FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 7-10 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING BEGINNING LATE WED. THE FRONT SLOWS FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WED NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT VEERING MORE NE...THEN INCREASING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.