000 AGXX40 KNHC 051838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED THEN MWW3 BLEND. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. COASTAL...BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT N OF THE FRONT OFF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR IS A MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NE THROUGH NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ITS MOVEMENT SE ACROSS THE SW GULF AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY TUE. THIS DISPLACES THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ EARLY MON. A REINFORCING SURGE WILL BRING STRONG NW TO N WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE GULF THROUGH WED...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED THEN MWW3 BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE JUST NW-N OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE SPREADING NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT W OF 84W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CORNER. THIS STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS TUE EVENING...FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WED MORNING...THEN STALLING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE W OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IN PART DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NW...AND IN PART DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA PREVIOUSLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE TRADES WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. THE RIDGING WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU...ALTHOUGH STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLAND AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS N OF 17N DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS WED INTO THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT S OF 15N SUN THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE WITH A SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL MERGING WITH A SET OF NE-E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 27N65W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL ARE S OF 22N WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS N OF 22N...(EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS). THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E OF 65W THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY EMERGES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...BEFORE STALLING THEN LIFTING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT DOMINATE THE BASIN BY MON MORNING UNDER THE RIDGING...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR HISPANIOLA MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND IN THE NW CORNER WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS N OF 27N LATE MON INTO TUE AS A STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE EVENING. A REINFORCING SURGE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SHIFT EASTWARD WED...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 7-10 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING WED NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWS FROM 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT VEERING MORE NE...THEN INCREASING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.