000 AGXX40 KNHC 050711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 311 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY BEACH FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 24N96W TO 19N94W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS W OF THE GULF INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. MEANWHILE ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 27.5N90W. MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE GULF...EXCEPT 3-5 FT SEAS N OF 22N W OF 90W. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY MOVING INLAND OVER COASTAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE S CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF WATERS AS A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 29N91W TO 21N97W MON MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT WITH A LENGTHENING AND PERSISTENT FETCH OF SE-S WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE MORNING...PUSHING E-SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG E OF 94W INTO WED MORNING WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST BY WED NIGHT. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS LOOK TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE NE-E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE JUST NW-N OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE SPREADING NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT W OF 84W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CORNER. THIS STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS TUE EVENING...FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WED MORNING...THEN STALLING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE W OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... ALONG WITH 7-10 FT SEAS. THESE TRADES WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...THEN WILL COMPRESS TO THE S SLIGHTLY COVERING THE WATERS S OF 16N BY THU MORNING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE ALONG 17.5N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING N OF 17N. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS WED INTO THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT S OF 15N SUN THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE WITH A SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL MERGING WITH A SET OF NE-E SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N66W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL ARE S OF 22N WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS N OF 22N...(EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS). THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E OF 65W THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER FROM NE FLORIDA. THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W SUN MORNING...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT MOVING BACK INLAND LATE SUN NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS FROM THE E. N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KT. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT DOMINATE THE BASIN BY MON MORNING UNDER THE RIDGING...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR HISPANIOLA MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND IN THE NW CORNER WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS N OF 27N LATE MON INTO TUE AS A STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION BY TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE EVENING WHILE A REINFORCING SURGE ARRIVES IN THE FAR NW CORNER. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY WED MORNING...THEN FROM E OF BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 7-10 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS AND 6-9 FT W OF THE FRONT INITIALLY...DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WED WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.