000
AGXX40 KNHC 041721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY THEN STALL FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
WILL INCREASE NLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TUE.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES
WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
SEA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N67W WILL MOVE E REACHING 65W BY SAT
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 31N79W TO 29N81W
SUN MORNING LIFTING BACK NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS
ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON TUE. N TO NE SWELLS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SAT. LARGE NLY
SWELL ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUSIDE TO LESS THAN 8
FT ON SAT.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.