000 AGXX40 KNHC 031909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 309 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. AREAS OF FOG AFFECTING THE NW COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT STILL APPEAR TO BE LINGERING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE WATERS ALONG CENTRAL TEXAS. FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ATLC HIGH NEAR 29N71W HAS SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY SE PAST 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINING RIDGE ALONG 30N ACROSS FL AND GULF COAST STATES. RETURN FLOW NOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL BUT NE GULF...WHERE SEAS HAVE GROWN TO 2-4 FT. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED E-SE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS AT 15-20 KT...WITH SEAS 4-6 FT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHIPS REPORTING SEAS 7 FT OFF EYW AND 9 FT OFF NW CUBA. BROAD AREA OF SE WINDS 20 KT TO LOCALLY 25 KT ACROSS MOST OF W HALF WITH SEAS 5-8 FT...AS BUOY 42055 FLUCTUATING 7-8 FT ATTM. SUPRISINGLY TEXAS COASTAL BUOYS STILL AT 4 FT BUT SHOULD REACH 5-6 BY THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT GUIDANCE WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING MODEST DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL POSITION. GFS REMAINS FASTEST BY 3-6 HRS ENTERING THE NW GULF FRI MORNING AND THEN REACHES FARTHER SE SAT BEFORE STALLING...AND DUE TO THIS...RETREATING FRONT SUN DOES NOT MOVE AS FAST INLAND SUN AS EUROPEAN MODELS. HAVE USED A MEAN FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH SAT THEN THE GEFS MEAN BEYOND DAY 3 WHICH IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. AS SECOND LOW SWEEPS ACROSS MS VALLEY LATE SUN-MON AND FRONT PUSHES SE INTO NW PORTIONS...MODELS SUGGEST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT COULD REACH 25-30 KT MON IN A FEW SMALL AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...PUSHING SEAS TO 6-9 FT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND E CENTRAL GULF WITH ISOLATED MAXES TO 10 FT. USING GEFS MEAN....FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W FL PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON AFTERNOON...BIG BEND TO CENTRAL YUCATAN BY 06Z TUE AND THROUGH SE FL AND EXITING THE BASIN TUE EVENING. MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN WIND FIELD BEHIND FRONT BY GLOBAL MODELS AND MORNING BLENDING NOT YIELDING NW TO N WINDS MORE THAN 25 KT...WHILE ECMWF FORECASTS 25-30+ KT IN W TO WNW FLOW ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. ATLC HIGH MOVING SLOWLY SE PAST 24 HOURS AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT RECENT SCAT PASSES MISSED MAX ZONE OFF OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 3-4 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TAIL END OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IT NOW DIFFUSE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW E TO E-SE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NW PORTIONS N OF 20N AND EXPECT SEAS THERE TO BUILD TO NEAR 7 FT BY EVENING. ATLC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E-SE THROUGH SAT WITH MODEST INCREASE IN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...RESULTING IN MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...INCLUDING STRONG E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED THERE AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 8 FT BY FRI MORNING. NOCTURNAL SPEED MAX OFF COLOMBIA ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PEAK NEAR 30 KT WITH 11 FT SEAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL DRIFT SE AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VI AND INTO EXTREME NE CARIB THROUGH SAT TO BRING INCREASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND AREA WATERS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 17N THROUGH TODAY AS THE TAIL END OF THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO ALONG 19N WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THAT AREA. AS THE FRONTAL REMNANTS DRIFT SE TO ALONG 18-19N LATE FRI INTO SAT...TRADES WILL INCREASE TO THE N OF BOUNDARY TO 15-20 KT. A NEW PULSE OF NW TO N SWELL HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE INTO THE WATERS PAST 8 HRS AND WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT PULSE OF N SWELL REACHES THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SUN INTO MON...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO PRIMARILY FRESH S OF 15N WITH NE SWELL BUILDING TO 7-9 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY S AND NOW APPROACHING N COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THROUGH N MONA PASSAGE TO E COAST OF DOM REP...WHERE IT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND S OF FRONT. NELY WINDS 15-20 KT DEPICTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASS N OF BOUNDARY BETWEEN 67W AND 72W AND LIKELY EXTEND EWD TO 64-65W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION...WITH MODERATE SLY FLOW ALONG E COAST OF FL. NEW PULSE OF NLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH E AND SE WATERS AND MODELS NOT DEPICTING THIS WELL...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT HIGHER THAN ALL MODELS ACROSS SE PART...WITH THIS SWELL TO HIT NE CARIB ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SEAS 2-3 FT IN EXCESS OF GUIDANCE AND HIGH SURF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE THROUGH SAT WHEN IT WILL REACH 65W...THEN SHIFT E OF 65W BY EARLY SUN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER FROM THE SE GA/NE FL COASTAL WATERS SAT...AND STALL ACROSS EXTREME NW PORTIONS SUN...THEN RETREAT TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MON AS ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS...AND LOW MOVES INTO MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THE TIME REQUIRE USE OF GEFS MEAN BEYOND DAY 3 FOR FRONTAL POSITIONING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.